PhD Defence Cecilia Costella | Social protection for climate change: a climate risk perspective

Social protection for climate change: a climate risk perspective

Cecila Costella is a PhD student in the Department of Applied Earth Sciences. (Co)Promotors are prof.dr. M.K. van Aalst and prof.dr. P.Y. Georgiadou from the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente.

Increasing climate risks represent an important challenge to international development and poverty reduction efforts. Climate change is already having important impacts on societies, especially affecting people’s lives and livelihoods, and increasing poverty. In the long term –especially in the absence of effective climate change mitigation and adaptation– climate change could become a main driver of socioeconomic risks, affecting people’s welfare, incomes and livelihoods, as well as health, employment, and migration decisions. Especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the relationship between climate change, poverty, and vulnerability is important, as increasing risks can push people deeper into poverty, limiting even further their ability to cope with climate impacts. 

Despite the current and potential welfare impacts of climate change, conceptual and empirical linkages between social protection – a field within social policy mainly concerned with poverty reduction and socioeconomic wellbeing, especially in LMICs – and climate risk management are still limited. Where they exist, the focus tends to be on short-term and highly visible hazards, particularly shocks and disasters arising from extreme weather events. Key questions persist about which climate-related risks social protection should address and how, especially over the long term, over the scope and extent of existing practice, and on what climate considerations are most relevant in effective policy and program design.

Grounded in a longer-term and systematic climate risk perspective, this research examines whether and how climate change risks are relevant to social protection, the extent to which social protection already addresses them in practice, how an expanded view of climate risks can inform future social protection policy and program design, and remaining policy-relevant research priorities in this field.

The research shows that climate-change related risks relevant to social protection are broader than often conceptualized and extend beyond those arising from extreme events to include slow-onset and environmental changes, and the negative side effects of climate change response measures. Against this broader risk conceptualization, the derives four functions for social protection as a policy tool for managing climate change: to reduce climate vulnerability, respond to shocks, offset adverse effects of response measures, and support adaptation and mitigation.

Using this framework as a starting point, the research empirically demonstrates the extent and ways in which social protection already addresses climate risks in practice by identifying 98 climate-relevant social protection programs in LMICs and assessing them across over 70 variables. While it shows many programs already contribute to climate risk management across a range of functions, it also demonstrates this is largely not by design and is still focused overwhelmingly on short-term risks.

The research then investigates whether and how an expanded view of climate risks can inform social protection program design as an alternative to humanitarian aid programs. By assessing the relationship between climate and non-climate factors and food security-related humanitarian emergencies in the Sahel, it shows that a narrow consideration of climate risks and vulnerability can lead to inadequate program design, possibly replicating shortcomings of existing response approaches.

 Finally, the thesis draws on scholarly and practitioner perspectives to identify policy-relevant research priorities for a social protection and climate agenda. It confirms that the most important evidence-policy gaps are those where prevailing approaches have focused less and include understanding impacts of broader risks on poverty trajectories and the resilience outcomes of social protection policies, among others.

Overall, this research advances the conceptualization and empirical evidence on social protection and climate change as an interdisciplinary field of study. Ultimately, it helps inform the development of social protection as a policy tool for countries and societies to manage social risks better, especially for the poor and most disadvantaged people who will bear the brunt of climate change.