PhD Defence Ernest Akyereko | Towards an Early Warning System for Pandemics: The Case of COVID-19 in Ghana  

Towards an Early Warning System for Pandemics: The Case of COVID-19 in Ghana

 Ernest Akyereko is a PhD student in the Department of Earth Observation Science. Promotors are prof.dr.ir. A. Stein, dr.ir. F.B. Osei, from the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, and prof.dr. K.M. Nyarko from the University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ghana

This PhD research investigates how spatio-temporal statistical modelling can support the development of an effective early warning system for equitable pandemic response, using COVID-19 in Ghana as a case study. Following the first reported cases in March 2020, Ghana experienced multiple pandemic waves that placed significant pressure on limited public health resources, highlighting the need for timely, data-driven response mechanisms.

The thesis analyses COVID-19 incidence and mortality data across Ghana from March 2020 to February 2022. Using spatial clustering methods, scan statistics, and Bayesian spatial models, the research identifies persistent geographic hotspots, vulnerable populations, and key demographic, environmental, and climatic drivers of COVID-19 risk. Results show strong spatial inequalities, with higher risks associated with urbanisation, proximity to epidemicepicentres, ageing populations, and specific climatic conditions.

By integrating routine surveillance data, spatial epidemiology, and advanced statistical modelling, this research demonstrates how early warning systems can be designed to detect emerging risks, guide targeted interventions, and improve pandemic preparedness. The findings provide a scalable framework that can be adapted to future pandemics and other public health threats, particularly in low- and middle-income country settings.