|Timeline:||August 2016 - 31 July 2020|
This study is focused on exploring meteorological triggers and other factors affecting drought conditions to enhance drought predictability in wet-tropical climate zones. The goal is to construct statistical seasonal drought prediction model driven by sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, global circulation indexes and anthropogenic factors. Model will be tested against existing drought forecasting tools. The assessment of the value of these forecasts for reservoir management applications using the case study of the Citarum River reservoir cascade, Indonesia will be conducted. Finally, we explore future changes of drought drivers due to climate change on drought frequency and severity. Using the knowledge accumulated in this project we are hoping to provide a recommendation of optimal usage of the highly uncertain seasonal weather prediction.